[Sunday update on the Gulf moisture and Tropical Storm Bertha follows original entry]
While all eyes are on Tropical Storm Bertha, it's in the middle of nowhere and of no immediate threat to land, and its ultimate destination is uncertain.
However, a tropical weather situation which could be life-threatening is imminent, and it just goes to show that you don't need a hurricane or even a named tropical storm for that to be the case.
There has been a big flare-up of convection (showers and thunderstorms) in the western Gulf of Mexico today, associated with deep tropical moisture, a weak surface trough of low pressure and low-level converging winds, and upper-level "divergence."
Tropical cyclone development is not expected at this time, but the potential exists for excessive rainfall in Mexico along with flooding and flash flooding (and mudslides in the eastern portion of the more mountainous inland terrain), as the wet pattern persists for the next few days.
[Crop of image from Wikimedia Atlas of the World under the GNU Free Documentation License]
Although the most extreme rainfall will occur south of the border (and let's hope this system does not achieve its worst-case scenario there), heavy showers are already affecting parts of southernmost Texas. That could eventually result in local flash flooding, but otherwise, any rain that falls in this region would be welcome and beneficial, given the extreme drought which exists.
[Radar image source: GRLevelX]
UPDATE 1PM EDT SUNDAY JULY 6
TEXAS
Continued good news in South Texas (well, except perhaps for folks' holiday weekend outdoor plans), as the combination of tropical moisture and other atmospheric triggers continues to bring rain, which is welcome as long as too much doesn't fall too quickly, and amounts are starting to add up. A statement just issued by the National Weather Service office in Brownsville indicates that in some places upwards of 4-5" has fallen so far since July 1, and additional locally heavy showers are around today.
MEXICO
Yesterday's big thunderstorm cluster in the satellite image above (early in the original entry) has given way to deep "convection" which is more sporadic over the western Gulf, but Mexico is not yet out of the woods. There's still a big area of deep tropical moisture, and the risk of flash flooding will still exist for the next couple of days, not only on and near the country's Gulf of Mexico coast but also on the Pacific side, where Tropical Depression Five-E is skirting that coast.
BERTHA
Bertha remains a weak tropical storm way out in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center said in their latest advisory, "it is much too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas." Indeed, at least as far as any direct effects are concerned. (Indirectly, ocean waves which are generated can affect areas far away from storms.)
The place first in line near the potential path would be Bermuda, but that's not for a few days, and impacts there will depend on the exact track and intensity of Bertha. Although the Leeward Islands, Turks and Caicos, and southern Bahamas need to stay apprised of the storm's progress, they're not the most likely destination.
As for farther down the line, including the mainland United States ... A few folks who posted comments to my first entry on the storm have speculated where Bertha might go, and there have been some interesting forecasts out there on the web.
Inherent uncertainty exists in any 7-day track forecast, particularly so in this case, and there's also the question of how intense (or not) the tropical cyclone will get (it's not like Bertha is presently a Category 5 hurricane). The bottom line if you're in Myrtle Beach or the Outer Banks or anywhere else on the East Coast is that the storm is of no immediate threat, it has a long row to hoe and would have a lot of hurdles to get over to make landfall in the U.S. and do so as a hurricane, and even if that were to happen there's plenty of time to monitor the situation.
Stay tuned ...
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