It's the question on many minds as we enter the holiday season. Historically, the chance for a white Christmas is very, very low. Check out the stats. below. With that said, if you have read the past few postings here on the weather blog, you know that we're thinking the first part of winter could be a bit rough. Due to that, there might be a slightly better chance this year, but don't get your hopes up!
I also want to address a couple of questions from the previous post. David wants to know how we can tell what the entire winter will be like if the computer models can't get it right three days from now. We don't use those models when forecasting in the long range. There are different models and data used to determine long term forecasts.
Now with that said, I want to talk about computer models and their limitations. Many times the computers show wrong solutions and flip flop from one day to the next. Anyone can read these models and say what's going to happen based on what they show. Knowing why and when they are right and wrong is the trick.
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